Does this predict the crucifixion of Jesus?

Some take this to be a prediction about Jesus, because it comes immediately before as messianic prediction (v.7). Moreover, the mention of marks between his arms could refer to the whipping and lashing that Jesus took. Indeed, Unger thinks this refers to Jesus.[1]

[1] Merrill F. Unger, Commentary on Zechariah (Grand Rapids: Zondervan, 1962), 227-230.

Not mincing words, Barker^[1] calls this view “weak, forced, irrelevant, or debatable. We agree with him for several reasons.

First, the context refers to the false prophet—not the Messiah. To make the antecedent refer to the Messiah, it needs to go all the way back to Zechariah 12:10. This is hermeneutical gymnastics. Klein comments, “Pronouns in Biblical Hebrew routinely refer to antecedents in their immediate context, not more remote nouns without clear indication to the contrary.”^[2] By contrast, verse 7 is a clear break in context, even changing to the imperatival and poetic form.

Second, the language doesn’t require crucifixion. The expression “between your arms” (bên yādeykā) doesn’t explicitly refer to crucifixion. Indeed, the identical expression occurs elsewhere for the place Jehu shot Joram in the heart (2 Kin. 9:24). That is, he shot him “between the shoulders” (NIV). This doesn’t refer to the wounds of crucifixion—unlike other clear passages (Ps. 22:16; Isa. 53:5; Zech. 12:10).

Third, the wounds could refer to blood lacerations that occur to incite the gods—not crucifixion. This was true of the prophets of Baal (1 Kin. 18:28; cf. Lev. 19:28; 21:5; Deut. 14:1; Jer. 16:6; 41:5; 48:37). Baldwin^[3] thinks this could refer to wounds from sexual idolatrous worship. After all, the term “friends” literally means “those who love me [objective genitive].”^[4]

^[1] Kenneth L. Barker, “Zechariah,” in The Expositor’s Bible Commentary: Daniel and the Minor Prophets, ed. Frank E. Gaebelein, vol. 7 (Grand Rapids, MI: Zondervan Publishing House, 1986), 686.

^[2] George L. Klein, Zechariah, vol. 21B, The New American Commentary (Nashville, TN: B & H Publishing Group, 2008), 384.

^[3] Joyce G. Baldwin, Haggai, Zechariah and Malachi: An Introduction and Commentary, vol. 28, Tyndale Old Testament Commentaries (Downers Grove, IL: InterVarsity Press, 1972), 212.

^[4] Kenneth L. Barker, “Zechariah,” in The Expositor’s Bible Commentary: Daniel and the Minor Prophets, ed. Frank E. Gaebelein, vol. 7 (Grand Rapids, MI: Zondervan Publishing House, 1986), 688.